Do inconclusive forensic decisions disadvantage the innocent?

OBJECTIVE: Two experiments examined the potential for inconclusive forensic decisions to disadvantage the innocent. HYPOTHESES: Both experiments tested the hypothesis that inconclusive decisions produce more incriminating legal judgments than do clearly exculpatory forensic decisions. Experiment 2 also examined whether this hypothesized effect conformed to a confirmation bias, a communication error, or perceptual accuracy. METHOD: In Experiment 1 (N = 492), a forensic expert testified that physical evidence recovered from a crime scene either matched or did not match a suspect's evidence or produced an inconclusive result. In Experiment 2 (N = 1,002), a forensic expert testified that physical evidence recovered from a crime scene either matched or did not match a suspect's evidence, produced an inconclusive result, or was unsuitable for analysis. A fifth condition omitted the forensic evidence and expert testimony. RESULTS: The inconclusive decision produced less incriminating legal judgments than did the match forensic decision (|d|average = 0.96), more incriminating legal judgments than did the no-match forensic decision (|d|average = 0.62), and equivalent legal judgments to the unsuitable decision (|d|average = 0.12) and to legal judgments made in the absence of forensic evidence (|d|average = 0.07). These results suggest that participants interpreted the inconclusive decision to be forensically neutral, which is consistent with a communication error. CONCLUSION: The findings provide preliminary support for the idea that inconclusive decisions can put the innocent at risk of wrongful conviction by depriving them of a clearly exculpatory forensic decision. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Validity of forensic cartridge-case comparisons.

This article presents key findings from a research project that evaluated the validity and probative value of cartridge-case comparisons under field-based conditions. Decisions provided by 228 trained firearm examiners across the US showed that forensic cartridge-case comparison is characterized by low error rates. However, inconclusive decisions constituted over one-fifth of all decisions rendered, complicating evaluation of the technique's ability to yield unambiguously correct decisions. Specifically, restricting evaluation to only the conclusive decisions of identification and elimination yielded true-positive and true-negative rates exceeding 99%, but incorporating inconclusives caused these values to drop to 93.4% and 63.5%, respectively. The asymmetric effect on the two rates occurred because inconclusive decisions were rendered six times more frequently for different-source than same-source comparisons. Considering probative value, which is a decision's usefulness for determining a comparison's ground-truth state, conclusive decisions predicted their corresponding ground-truth states with near perfection. Likelihood ratios (LRs) further showed that conclusive decisions greatly increase the odds of a comparison's ground-truth state matching the ground-truth state asserted by the decision. Inconclusive decisions also possessed probative value, predicting different-source status and having a LR indicating that they increase the odds of different-source status. The study also manipulated comparison difficulty by using two firearm models that produce dissimilar cartridge-case markings. The model chosen for being more difficult received more inconclusive decisions for same-source comparisons, resulting in a lower true-positive rate compared to the less difficult model. Relatedly, inconclusive decisions for the less difficult model exhibited more probative value, being more strongly predictive of different-source status.

The stigma of wrongful conviction differs for White and Black exonerees.

OBJECTIVE: Black people are disproportionately targeted and disadvantaged in the criminal legal system. We tested whether Black exonerees are similarly disadvantaged by the stigma of wrongful conviction. HYPOTHESES: In Experiment 1, we predicted that the stigma of wrongful conviction would be greater for Black than White exonerees. After finding the opposite pattern, we conducted two experiments to investigate the psychological underpinnings of this counterintuitive effect-specifically, whether it was driven by attempts to appear unprejudiced and/or beliefs regarding the legal system bias that Black and White exonerees face. METHOD: In Experiment 1, we unobtrusively measured non-Black participants' behavioral reactions to an anticipated meeting with a Black or White exoneree or businessman. In Experiment 2, participants completed measures that assessed their motivation to appear unprejudiced and then, in a separate session, evaluated a Black or White exoneree and reported their beliefs about the legal system bias faced by the exoneree. Experiment 3 was a partial replication of Experiment 2. In Experiments 2 and 3, we examined data from both non-Black and Black participants. RESULTS: Non-Black participants in Experiment 1 stigmatized the White exoneree, d = -0.31, 95% confidence interval (CI) [-0.72, 0.10], but not the Black exoneree, d = 0.44, 95% CI [0.04, 0.83]. Experiments 2 and 3 replicated this finding, showing that the effect was mediated by the belief that Black exonerees faced greater legal system bias than White exonerees (Experiment 2: B = 0.21, SE = 0.06, 95% CI [0.11, 0.33]; Experiment 3: B = 0.35, SE = 0.09, 95% CI [0.19, 0.55]). Our results also suggested that Black individuals react more favorably to Black than White exonerees, potentially because of their beliefs regarding legal system bias. CONCLUSIONS: People may react more favorably to Black than White exonerees because of the belief that Black exonerees face greater injustices within the legal system. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Why suspects confess: The power of outcome certainty.

OBJECTIVE: In custodial interrogations, suspects tend to give disproportionate weight to immediate outcomes relative to future outcomes when deciding whether to confess or deny guilt. The current research examined whether the perceived (un)certainty of an immediate outcome influences suspects' short-sighted confession decisions. HYPOTHESES: We hypothesized that suspects are more likely to make short-sighted confession decisions when an immediate punishment is certain versus uncertain and that the effects of a certain immediate punishment become stronger the longer suspects are interrogated. METHOD: Using the repetitive question paradigm, college student participants (N = 164, 57% women, 87% Caucasian, M age 18.9 years) admitted or denied 20 illegal and unethical behaviors in an interview. Participants' admissions and denials received either an immediate punishment (answering repetitive questions) or a future punishment (meeting with a police officer in several weeks to discuss their misconduct). In addition, we manipulated participants' perceptions of the immediate punishment to be either certain or uncertain. RESULTS: Participants showed greater short-sightedness in their admission decisions when they perceived the immediate punishment to be certain versus uncertain. Moreover, the influence of the certain immediate punishment on participants' admission decisions tended to increase over time. CONCLUSIONS: These findings provide empirical evidence that the certainty of immediate outcomes may contribute to suspects' shorted-sighted confession decisions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

Mobilization and resistance in response to interrogation threat.

This research tested whether the perception of threat during a police interrogation mobilizes suspects to cope with interrogation demands and bolsters their resistance to self-incrimination pressures. Experimental procedures led university undergraduates (N = 296) to engage in misconduct or not, thereby making them guilty or innocent. An experimenter then accused all participants of misconduct in either a threatening or nonthreatening way. High threat produced a broad pattern of mobilization entailing physiologic, cognitive, and behavioral components. Specifically, in comparison to the low threat accusation, the high threat accusation produced greater cardiovascular reactions, increased attentional bias and memory for accusation-relevant information, and strengthened resistance to self-incrimination. Furthermore, with the exception of physiologic reactions, these effects were similar for both guilty and innocent participants. Consistent with the phenomenology of innocence wherein the innocent perceive less threat from interrogation than do the guilty, the innocent evidenced smaller cardiovascular responses to high threat than did the guilty. Results suggest that the more threat that suspects experience, the more they will be mobilized to cope with interrogation demands and resist interpersonal pressure to self-incriminate, at least initially. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

Downstream Effects of Dispositional Inferences on Confirmation Biases.

Although research has given substantial attention to understanding the antecedents of dispositional inferences, less attention has been directed at the consequences of these inferences, such that evidence linking dispositional inferences to downstream effects is relatively scarce. The present investigation examined whether dispositional inferences formed during initial observations elicited confirmatory processing of subsequent information about observed targets. Because confirmation biases influence a variety of information processing strategies, four experiments examined the extent to which dispositional inferences guided memory of new information (Experiment 1), interpretation of ambiguous information (Experiment 2), and information-seeking behavior (Experiments 3 and 4). Results indicated that biased processing of subsequent information was more likely when dispositional inferences were encouraged (i.e., impression formation objective) versus discouraged (i.e., narrative construction objective). This investigation highlights the role of causal inferences on confirmation biases and reveals the ease with which biases can be both bolstered and attenuated.

The accumulation of stereotype-based self-fulfilling prophecies.

A recurring theme in the psychological literature is that the self-fulfilling effect of stereotypes can accumulate across perceivers. This article provides the first empirical support for this long-standing hypothesis. In three experiments (Ns = 123-241), targets more strongly confirmed a stereotype as the number of perceivers who held stereotypic expectations about them increased. A fourth experiment (N = 121) showed that new perceivers judged targets according to the stereotypic behaviors they had previously been channeled to adopt, an effect that even occurred among perceivers who were privy to the fact that targets' behavior had been shaped by the actions of others. The authors discuss ways in which these effects may contribute to group inequalities. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Defendant stereotypicality moderates the effect of confession evidence on judgments of guilt.

This research examined whether criminal stereotypes-i.e., beliefs about the typical characteristics of crime perpetrators-influence mock jurors' judgments of guilt in cases involving confession evidence. Mock jurors (N = 450) read a trial transcript that manipulated whether a defendant's ethnicity was stereotypic or counterstereotypic of a crime, and whether the defendant had confessed to the crime or not. When a confession was present, the transcript varied whether the confession had been obtained using high-pressure or low-pressure interrogation tactics. Consistent with the hypothesis, the presence of a confession (relative to no confession) increased perceptions of the defendant's guilt when the defendant was stereotypic of the crime, regardless of the interrogation tactics that had been used to obtain it. When the defendant was counterstereotypic of the crime, however, the presence of a confession did not significantly increase perceptions of guilt, even when the confession was obtained using low-pressure interrogation tactics. These findings demonstrate the potentially powerful effects of criminal stereotypes on legal judgments and suggest that individuals who fit a criminal stereotype may be disadvantaged over the course of the criminal justice process. (PsycINFO Database Record

The psychology of defendant plea decision making.

Every day, thousands of defendants, prosecutors, and defense attorneys must make guilty plea decisions, such as whether to accept a plea offer or proceed to trial. Most defendants opt to plead guilty; approximately 95% of state and federal convictions result from guilty pleas. In light of a newly emerging body of research and recent Supreme Court decisions on guilty pleas, this article asks and answers 2 questions: First, who pleads guilty and why? We describe the characteristics of those who are more or less likely to plead guilty, and examine the reasons why individuals plead guilty instead of proceeding to trial, exploring the cognitive, social influence, and developmental factors that underlie decision making. Second, are defendants' plea decisions valid, in that the decisions are made knowingly, intelligently, voluntarily, and with a factual basis of guilt? That is, do defendants who plead guilty understand and appreciate the conditions and consequences of their pleas, as required by law? Are innocent people induced to plead guilty to crimes they did not commit? We conclude with suggestions to move the field of plea research forward. (PsycINFO Database Record

A biphasic process of resistance among suspects: The mobilization and decline of self-regulatory resources.

We conducted two experiments to test whether police interrogation elicits a biphasic process of resistance from suspects. According to this process, the initial threat of police interrogation mobilizes suspects to resist interrogative influence in a manner akin to a fight or flight response, but suspects' protracted self-regulation of their behavior during subsequent questioning increases their susceptibility to interrogative influence in the long-run. In Experiment 1 (N = 316), participants who were threatened by an accusation of misconduct exhibited responses indicative of mobilization and more strongly resisted social pressure to acquiesce to suggestive questioning than did participants who were not accused. In Experiment 2 (N = 160), self-regulatory decline that was induced during questioning about misconduct undermined participants' ability to resist suggestive questioning. These findings support a theoretical account of the dynamic and temporal nature of suspects' responses to police interrogation over the course of questioning. (PsycINFO Database Record

The interrogation decision-making model: A general theoretical framework for confessions.

This article presents a new model of confessions referred to as the interrogation decision-making model. This model provides a theoretical umbrella with which to understand and analyze suspects' decisions to deny or confess guilt in the context of a custodial interrogation. The model draws upon expected utility theory to propose a mathematical account of the psychological mechanisms that not only underlie suspects' decisions to deny or confess guilt at any specific point during an interrogation, but also how confession decisions can change over time. Findings from the extant literature pertaining to confessions are considered to demonstrate how the model offers a comprehensive and integrative framework for organizing a range of effects within a limited set of model parameters. (PsycINFO Database Record

The perfect match: Do criminal stereotypes bias forensic evidence analysis?

This research provided the first empirical test of the hypothesis that stereotypes bias evaluations of forensic evidence. A pilot study (N = 107) assessed the content and consensus of 20 criminal stereotypes by identifying perpetrator characteristics (e.g., sex, race, age, religion) that are stereotypically associated with specific crimes. In the main experiment (N = 225), participants read a mock police incident report involving either a stereotyped crime (child molestation) or a nonstereotyped crime (identity theft) and judged whether a suspect's fingerprint matched a fingerprint recovered at the crime scene. Accompanying the suspect's fingerprint was personal information about the suspect of the type that is routinely available to fingerprint analysts (e.g., race, sex) and which could activate a stereotype. Participants most often perceived the fingerprints to match when the suspect fit the criminal stereotype, even though the prints did not actually match. Moreover, participants appeared to be unaware of the extent to which a criminal stereotype had biased their evaluations. These findings demonstrate that criminal stereotypes are a potential source of bias in forensic evidence analysis and suggest that suspects who fit criminal stereotypes may be disadvantaged over the course of the criminal justice process. (PsycINFO Database Record

Relationship Closeness and Self-reported Willingness to Falsely Take the Blame.

One reason people falsely confess is to protect the true perpetrator. The current study examined whether relationship closeness influences people's self-reported willingness to falsely take the blame. Utilizing theoretical work from the prosocial area, three potential mediators were investigated. Participants (N = 131) were randomly assigned to think of either a close or a casual friend and then read one of two scenarios that described a minor offense committed by the friend. Participants' willingness to take the blame was assessed, as well as their perceptions of reciprocity, feelings of empathy, and distress concerns related to their relationship with the offending friend. Results showed that, in both scenarios, participants more often took the blame in the close friend condition than in the casual friend condition. Reciprocity and empathy each uniquely and independently mediated relationship closeness, whereas distress concerns did not. Differences in the two scenarios, which describe different offenses, are discussed. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Taking Blame for Other People's Misconduct.

Taking blame for another person's misconduct may occur at relatively high rates for less serious crimes. The authors examined individual differences and situational factors related to this phenomenon by surveying college students (n = 213) and men enrolled in substance abuse treatment programs (n = 42). Among college students, conscientiousness and delinquency predicted their likelihood of being in a situation in which it was possible to take the blame for another person's misconduct. Situational factors, including the relationship with the perpetrator, the seriousness of the offense, feelings of responsibility for the offense, and differential consequences between the offender and the blame taker, were associated with college students' decisions to take the blame. Among substance abuse treatment participants, individuals who took the blame for another person's misconduct were more extraverted, reported feeling more loyalty toward the true perpetrator, and indicated more incentives to take the blame than individuals who did not take the blame. Links between theories of helping behavior and situational factors that predict blame taking are discussed.

Short-sighted confession decisions: the role of uncertain and delayed consequences.

Suspects have a propensity to focus on short-term contingencies, giving disproportionate weight to the proximal consequences that are delivered by police during an interrogation, and too little consideration to the distal (and often more severe) consequences that may be levied by the judicial system if they are convicted. In this research, the authors examined whether the perceived uncertainty and temporal distance of distal consequences contribute to this propensity. Using the repetitive question paradigm (Madon et al., 2012), participants (N = 209) were interviewed about 20 prior criminal and unethical behaviors and were required to admit or deny each one. Participants' denials and admissions were paired with both a proximal consequence and a distal consequence, respectively. Results indicated that the distal consequence had less impact on participants' admission decisions when it was uncertain and temporally remote. These results provide evidence that the perceived uncertainty and temporal distance of future punishment are key factors that lead suspects to confess to crimes in exchange for short-term gains.

Popularity as a predictor of early alcohol use and moderator of other risk processes.

OBJECTIVE: This study tested the relationship between popularity and early adolescent alcohol use and examined whether popularity moderated the influence of several risk processes. METHOD: Longitudinal data provided by 1,196 youth (590 girls) were analyzed to assess main and interactive effects of popularity, friends' alcohol use attitudes, own alcohol use attitude, risk taking, and aggressive-disruptive behavior on changes in alcohol use during seventh grade. RESULTS: When we controlled for demographic variables and baseline alcohol use, popularity and the other predictors of interest exhibited linear main effects on alcohol use, with popularity and the attitude variables also demonstrating curvilinear relationships. Further analysis indicated that popularity moderated the effect of aggressive-disruptive behavior, the latter being associated with greater alcohol use among more popular adolescents. Additional moderation results revealed that friends' favorable attitudes toward alcohol use also potentiated aggressive-disruptive behavior's relationship with alcohol use and that male youth were more likely than female youth to use alcohol, but only among low risk takers. CONCLUSIONS: Popular youth may attempt to maintain status through early alcohol use, and their social competencies may facilitate risk processes associated with aggressive-disruptive behavior. Findings suggest the utility of providing universal prevention at developmentally crucial times to address substance use overall, and particularly to decrease early use among popular youth, which may serve to slow the growth of substance use in the larger cohort. Although aggressive-disruptive youth who are popular seem to be at particular risk, they may resist traditional interventions, indicating the potential value of less obvious intervention strategies.

The Role Of The Self-Fulfilling Prophecy In Young Adolescents' Responsiveness To A Substance Use Prevention Program.

This research examined whether naturally-occurring self-fulfilling prophecies influenced adolescents' responsiveness to a substance use prevention program. The authors addressed this issue with a unique methodological approach that was designed to enhance the internal validity of research on naturally-occurring self-fulfilling prophecies by experimentally controlling for prediction without influence. Participants were 321 families who were assigned to an adolescent substance use prevention program that either did or did not systematically involve parents. Results showed that parents' perceptions about the value of involving parents in adolescent substance use prevention predicted adolescents' alcohol use more strongly among families assigned to the prevention program that systematically involved parents than to the one that did not. The theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed.

Reducing the stigma associated with seeking psychotherapy through self-affirmation.

Psychotherapy may be underutilized because people experience self-stigma-the internalization of public stigma associated with seeking psychotherapy. The purpose of this study was to experimentally test whether the self-stigma associated with seeking psychotherapy could be reduced by a self-affirmation intervention wherein participants reflected on an important personal characteristic. Compared with a control group, we hypothesized that a self-affirmation writing task would attenuate self-stigma, and thereby evidence indirect effects on intentions and willingness to seek psychotherapy. Participants were 84 undergraduates experiencing psychological distress. After completing pretest measures of self-stigma, intentions, and willingness to seek psychotherapy, participants were randomly assigned to either a self-affirmation or a control writing task, and subsequently completed posttest measures of self-stigma, intentions, and willingness to seek psychotherapy. Consistent with hypotheses, participants who engaged in self-affirmation reported lower self-stigma at posttest. Moreover, the self-affirmation writing task resulted in a positive indirect effect on willingness to seek psychotherapy, though results failed to support an indirect effect on intentions to seek psychotherapy. Findings suggest that self-affirmation theory may provide a useful framework for designing interventions that seek to address the underutilization of psychological services through reductions in self-stigma.

Innocence and resisting confession during interrogation: effects on physiologic activity.

Innocent suspects may not adequately protect themselves during interrogation because they fail to fully appreciate the danger of the situation. This experiment tested whether innocent suspects experience less stress during interrogation than guilty suspects, and whether refusing to confess expends physiologic resources. After experimentally manipulating innocence and guilt, 132 participants were accused and interrogated for misconduct, and then pressured to confess. Systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP, DBP), heart rate (HR), respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA), and preejection period (PEP) responses quantified stress reactions. As hypothesized, the innocent evidenced smaller stress responses to interrogation for SBP, DBP, HR, and RSA than did the guilty. Furthermore, innocents who refused to confess exhibited greater sympathetic nervous system activation, as evidenced by shorter PEPs, than did innocent or guilty confessors. These findings suggest that innocent suspects underestimate the threat of interrogation and that resisting pressures to confess can diminish suspects' physiologic resources and lead to false confessions.

"Go ahead and sign": an experimental examination of Miranda waivers and comprehension.

This research examined whether the protections afforded by Miranda are compromised by two situational factors that may be present during the Miranda administration process. The factors examined were the police tactic of trivializing the importance of a waiver and the stress that accompanies an accusation of serious misconduct. All participants (N = 89) were accused of misconduct on an experimental task and were led to believe that they would have to discuss the incident with the professor in charge of the experiment. In addition, all participants were asked to sign a waiver of their right to have a student advocate present during that meeting, after which their comprehension of the waiver was assessed. To manipulate the police tactic of trivializing a waiver, participants were told that the waiver had important or trivial implications for their future outcomes. To manipulate stress, participants were told that their misconduct was either a serious or minor violation of the experiment. Results indicated that participants were more likely to sign the waiver and had worse comprehension of its content when it was described as trivial versus important. Participants' comprehension of the waiver was also worse when their misconduct was described as a serious versus a minor violation of the experiment. These findings have implications for policy regarding the standardization of Miranda administration protocols as well as for future research aimed at understanding the influence of situational factors on Miranda waivers and comprehension.